Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 11.632733 13.607572 15.772089 18.314695 21.213447 24.408907 28.191586
2024-10-20 8.362368 10.982966 14.150107 18.232154 23.323435 29.431210 37.276554
2024-10-27 6.347546 9.225300 13.009087 18.283051 25.367224 34.467117 46.938058
2024-11-03 5.405802 8.561570 13.014641 19.634450 29.075379 41.879457 60.339455
2024-11-10 4.590597 7.860071 12.775610 20.510837 32.132760 48.646586 73.500589
2024-11-17 3.935332 7.239419 12.502409 21.218762 34.933817 55.233167 86.943555
2024-11-24 3.240378 6.398060 11.719706 20.978216 36.200928 59.613540 97.479358
2024-12-01 2.600450 5.509980 10.694305 20.157647 36.390079 62.286234 105.565499
2024-12-08 2.119748 4.807403 9.857740 19.503243 36.713720 65.112805 114.021071
2024-12-15 1.831285 4.416605 9.511592 19.640472 38.349476 70.140478 126.326432
2024-12-22 1.542296 3.961018 8.963339 19.315904 39.106151 73.720192 136.464658
2024-12-29 1.426700 3.859870 9.095376 20.290405 42.291557 81.672170 154.508985
2025-01-05 1.251610 3.594511 8.868182 20.567968 44.283576 87.836296 170.200869
2025-01-12 1.090613 3.328441 8.599947 20.733368 46.093235 93.855575 186.166055
2025-01-19 0.952263 3.086952 8.345510 20.890891 47.899301 100.012254 202.840700
2025-01-26 0.915689 3.112046 8.713841 22.452311 52.706179 112.164736 231.341415
2025-02-02 0.849449 3.037540 8.829282 23.455546 56.441103 122.529005 257.177088
2025-02-09 0.779682 2.935436 8.858438 24.259184 59.820674 132.434079 282.768816
2025-02-16 0.671309 2.684448 8.460213 23.990921 60.832098 137.696537 299.743245
2025-02-23 0.554351 2.369990 7.832600 23.067615 60.273712 139.713148 310.458601
2025-03-02 0.462526 2.112136 7.310773 22.330483 60.047661 142.369374 322.582438
2025-03-09 0.410785 1.984233 7.140752 22.485306 61.920775 149.570603 344.360346
2025-03-16 0.352007 1.809549 6.795994 22.119484 62.499486 154.019719 360.720405